A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan.
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.
منابع مشابه
Assessment of potential climate change impacts on drought indicators (Case study: Yazd station, Central Iran)
This research studies the potential impact of climate change on future trend and changes of two well known drought indicators namely RDI and SPI in Yazd meteorological station, in central part of Iran. For this purpose, data of HadCM3 model that were resulted from GCM-runs based on the IPCC-SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 were acquired and analyzed for projection of daily Tmin, Tmax and precipitati...
متن کاملAssessment of impacts of future climate change on water resources of the Hulu Langat basin using the swat model
متن کامل
A flood risk projection for Soleimantangeh Dam against future climate change
A sensitivity analysis of the flood safety of Solaimantangeh dam using a regional climate change simulation is presented. Based on the output of the CCSM (Community Climate Change System Model) general circulation model, the NIRCM (North of Iran Regional Climate Model) computes regional scale output with 50 km spatial resolution and 21 vertical layers. Using the SRES (Special Report Emission Sc...
متن کاملClimate change scenarios generated by using GCM outputs and statistical downscaling in an arid region
Two statistical downscaling models, the non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) and the Statistical Down–Scaling Model (SDSM) were used to generate future scenarios of both mean and extremes in the Tarim River basin,which were based on nine combined scenarios including three general circulation models (GCMs) (CSIRO30, ECHAM5,and GFDL21) predictor sets and three special report on emission sce...
متن کاملارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیکی - توزیعی WetSpa با رویکرد احتمالاتی و تحلیل عدم قطعیت (مطالعه‌ی موردی: حوضه‌ی رود زرد واقع در استان خوزستان)
Abstract This study examines the effects of climate change on runoff in the Yellow River basin in Khuzestan province. In this study, the combination of 14 general circulation models under two emission scenarios A2 and B1 were used for simulating the climatic variables in the next period (2025-2054) compared to the baseline period (1971-2000). The weighting method of mean observed temperature...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
دوره 368 1931 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2010